Nigeria's External Debt Rises to $54.5bn Under Tinubu

Nigeria's external debt has risen by $11.4 billion in the last three years under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Research shows that total external debt stood at about $54.5 billion as of June 2026, compared with about $43.1 billion when the President assumed office.

The increase has been driven by commercial borrowing, multilateral loans and syndicated financing. Domestic debt also surged during the period, from about N59.1 trillion to about N91.5 trillion, partly due to the securitisation of Ways and Means advances and higher Treasury Bills issuances.

World Bank loans drive bulk of rise

A large part of the external increase came from the World Bank. Nigeria's debt to the World Bank rose from $15.4 billion to about $20.7 billion within the period.

The first major increase occurred in June 2024 when the country obtained $1.5 billion under the Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation, RESET, Development Policy Financing.

That month, the Bank approved $2.25 billion in RESET and ARMOR reform financing. In September 2024, another $1.57 billion was approved for the HOPE and SPIN programmes.

In March 2025, the World Bank approved a further $1.08 billion for education and resilience programmes.

In 2026, the Federal Government engaged the Bank for a fresh $1.25 billion loan under a proposed programme aimed at expanding access to finance, digital services and electricity, while supporting reforms in tax, trade and agriculture.

Eurobonds, UAE loans add pressure

Nigeria's Eurobond debt also increased as the country returned to the international commercial market.

The first major rise came in December 2024 with a $2.2 billion dual-tranche issuance. It comprised $700 million at 9.625 per cent due in 2031 and $1.5 billion at 10.375 per cent due in 2034.

In November 2025, another $2.35 billion dual-tranche issuance followed, made up of $1.25 billion at 8.63 per cent due in 2036 and $1.10 billion at 9.13 per cent due in 2046.

The country also secured a $1.8 billion syndicated loan from First Abu Dhabi Bank, according to Debt Management Office data.

In 2026, a $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement was agreed with the bank, with Nigeria drawing $1.5 billion in June 2026.

The International Monetary Fund cautioned Nigeria over the derivatives-based facility, warning that such transactions are "often complex and lack transparency."

Fitch also raised concerns about transparency, liquidity and creditor-recovery risks linked to structures such as Total Return Swaps and repo transactions.

The Federal Government defended the facility, saying no oil revenues or strategic national assets were pledged as collateral.

2026 budget to rely on more borrowing

President Tinubu signed the 2026 Appropriation Bill into law earlier in the year, with total expenditure of N68.32 trillion. The record budget is to be funded partly through deficit-backed borrowing, with the deficit estimated at about N31.4 trillion.

Planned borrowing for 2026 rose to N29.20 trillion following the expansion in budget size and deficit. The Federal Government also targeted N2 trillion in borrowing through multilateral and bilateral project-tied loans.

Tinubu said the expanded borrowing plan would reduce pressure on the domestic financial market, although domestic debt has risen to about N91.5 trillion.

Alongside the budget, lawmakers approved $6 billion in external loans, including the $5 billion First Abu Dhabi Bank facility and about $1 billion from UK Export Finance for two port projects.

The rise in domestic borrowing has come through FGN bonds and Treasury Bills.

Public debt hits N166.79trn

Nigeria's total public debt stock rose to N166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026, from N159.35 trillion as of March 31, 2026.

Domestic debt accounted for N91.59 trillion, representing 54.91 per cent of total debt. Federal Government external debt stood at N65.77 trillion, or 39.44 per cent of total public debt.

States and the Federal Capital Territory accounted for N9.42 trillion, or 5.65 per cent, in external debt.

On the domestic side, Federal Government debt stood at N87.00 trillion, representing 52.16 per cent of total debt, while states and the FCT accounted for N4.59 trillion, or 2.75 per cent.

Overall, the Federal Government accounted for about N152.77 trillion of Nigeria's public debt as of June 2026, while states and the FCT accounted for about N14.01 trillion, underlining the Federal Government's dominant share as borrowing expanded.