Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that inflation moved up and down in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling earlier in the period before rising again toward the end of the year.
For the first time in years, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the yearly inflation rate dropped to 14.45% by November 2025.
To put this in perspective, the country started the year with inflation at over 30%, meaning the "heat" on prices cooled down by more than half.
A big reason for this relief was a successful farming season. Food inflation which tracks the cost of what we eat fell to about 11%. This helped stabilize the price of items like garri, rice, and yams.
However, while food got cheaper, the cost of bus fares and hospital bills stayed high, growing by nearly 17% and 30% respectively.
If you look at the numbers for December 2025, you might see a sudden jump to 31.2%. Don’t panic this isn't because things suddenly got twice as expensive overnight.
The government changed how they calculate these numbers to make them more accurate for modern life. This "new math" makes the December figure look much higher than November’s, even though actual market prices didn't jump that drastically in one month.
The Central Bank is still keeping interest rates high at 27% to make sure inflation stays down. Their big goal is to get the rate down to 13% by next year.
For most Nigerians, this means things are getting better, but we aren't out of the woods yet. The value of the Naira and the price of petrol are still the two big factors that could change everything. The government is hoping to keep the dollar at around N1,500 to help keep prices steady.
While the "paper numbers" look better, the real test will be when the average person feels the change in their daily budget. For now, it’s a sign that the worst of the price hikes might finally be behind us.
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